NOT BOGUS – ECCB CONFIRMS 5.3% REAL GDP GROWTH FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank has updated its website with macro-economic statistics for the countries of the Currency Union, showing Antigua and Barbuda’s economy expanded by 5.27 percent in 2021.
This is rounded off to 5.3 percent, the growth figure provided by Prime Minister and Finance Minister Hon. Gaston Browne during his 2022 budget presentation in Parliament’s Lower House on February 3. The ECCB also projects that the twin-island state will see growth in real Gross Domestic Product of 4.71 percent in 2022.
The issue of Antigua and Barbuda’s growth rate had been a lightning rod of controversy after Member of Parliament for Barbuda Hon. Trevor Walker accused the Prime Minister of promulgating “bogus figures” in reference to the 5.3 percent and accused him of deception.
The ECCB’s growth estimate is half a percentage point or 50 basis points higher than the 4.8 per cent released by the International Monetary Fund.
While the IMF is traditionally more conservative in its estimates and forecasts, the Washington-based multi-lateral has projected Antigua and Barbuda’s economy will expand by 7 percent in 2022, over two percentage points higher than the ECCB’s forecast.
The IMF’s 7-percent growth forecast for 2022 is marginally lower than the Gaston Browne administration’s expectation of at least 8 per cent growth in economic output in 2022 as the recovery from the pandemic continues.
Meanwhile, the IMF recently concluded a virtual visit to Antigua and Barbuda and indicated “Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is on a steady path of recovery, buoyed by strong tourism and construction activity.”
The Fund also says, “despite the pandemic, fiscal consolidation resumed in 2021 and the primary deficit narrowed to 1.8 percent of GDP (from 3.8 percent in 2020) reflecting domestic revenue mobilization, external grants, and the reprioritization of spending.”